CORN: North Dakota at Record Slow Planting Pace; Some Prevent Acreage

December corn traded moderately higher on the session yesterday and drove up into new contract highs for the second day in a row. A limit up run in the wheat market plus talk that parts of the Brazil Corn Belt could see cold temperatures and a potential frost helped to support. Most traders do not see any damage, but the threat may have been enough to spark buying. A major analytical firm believes that the high price of corn has led to an increase in planted acreage this year. This may change with the weather but for now they see total corn planted area near 91.5 million acres, about 2 million above the USDA March forecast. If so, and we leave all of the other USDA numbers unchanged, ending stocks come in at 1.684 billion bushels which would be the highest since the 2019/2020 season. For the weekly crop progress report, traders expected to see corn plantings at 49% complete, from 22% last week. The range of estimates was from 43% to 58%. Corn planted as of May 15 was up 27% at 49%. This is down 29% versus last year and down 20% versus the 10 year average.

The top producing states reported with Iowa 57% (+43%), Illinois 55% (+40%), Nebraska 62% (+23%), Minnesota 35%, up 26% for the week and down from 94% last year and South Dakota 31%, up 20% on the week and down from 83% last year. North Dakota is only 4% planted from 1% last week and 59% last year. Before this year, 2014 was the slowest planting pace on record at 11% complete. While producers have every incentive to get the crop in the ground, there is a risk of prevent planted acres increasing dramatically for North Dakota, Minnesota and other spots in the northern and western Corn Belt. Corn export inspections for the week ending May 12 came in at 1,036,549 metric tonnes as compared with trade expectations for 750,000-1.392 million tonnes. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are 39,102,991 metric tonnes which is 17.4% below last year. This is 61.6% of the USDA's forecast for the 2021-22 marketing year versus the five year average of 65.1%.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS

The market experienced a dramatic jump in planted area, but right on trade expectations. With rain in the forecast for Minnesota and surrounding areas over the next five days, progress could slow dramatically. North Dakota is a record slow planting pace. The market remains in a solid uptrend and the increase in open interest in the past several days is a positive development. Support for December corn is at 742 1/2, with 777 1/4 as next resistance. July corn support is at 796 3/4, with 845 1/2 as next upside target.