USDA Supply/Demand Summary - May 2022

Corn

US 2022/23 corn yield came in at 177 bushels/acre versus an average expectation of 179.9 and a range of expectations from 176.0 to 181.0. Production came in at 14.460 billion bushels versus and average expectation of 14.782 billion (range 14.414–15.077 billion). Ending stocks for 2022/23 came in at 1.360 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 1.318 billion (range 988 million to 1.645 billion). Ending stocks for 2021/22 came in at 1.440 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 1.410 billion. World 2022/23 corn production came in at 1.1807 billion tonnes versus an average expectation of 1.1958 billion (range 1.1811-1.208 billion). Ending stocks came in at 305.13 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 297.7 million (range 282.7-307.7 million). Ending stocks for 2021/22 came in at 309.39 million versus an average expectation of 303.5 million (range 297-308 million). Brazil's 2021/22 production came in at 116 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 113.60 million (range 110.0-116.5 million). Argentina's 2021/22 production came in at 53.00 million tonnes versus 51.8 million expected (range 49-53 million).

PRICE OUTLOOK

Most of the USDA data carried a bearish tilt for the corn market, as global and US usage were not quite as high as traders had anticipated. US production and yield came in below trade expectations, and this provided some support along with strength in the wheat market. December Corn tested the April 29 contract high just after the report. A move to the new contract high would leave 777 1/4 as the next upside target, with support at 736 3/4 and 730 1/2.

U.S. Corn Supply and Use
				Recent Report Data
				May	Apr	May	May
				USDA	USDA	USDA	USDA
	17-18	18-19	19-20	20-21	21-22	21-22	22-23
Planted Area (M Acres)	90.2	88.9	89.7	90.7	93.4	93.4	89.5
Harvested Area (Acres)	82.7	81.3	81.3	82.3	85.4	85.4	81.7
Yield (Bu/Acre)	176.6	176.4	167.5	171.4	177.0	177.0	177.0
Supply
Beginning Stocks (M Bu)	2,293	2,140	2,221	1,919	1,235	1,235	1,440
Production	14,609	14,340	13,620	14,111	15,115	15,115	14,460
Imports	36	28	42	24	25	25	25
Supply, Total	16,939	16,509	15,883	16,055	16,375	16,375	15,925
Use
Feed & Residual	5,304	5,427	5,900	5,598	5,625	5,625	5,350
Food, Seed & Industry	7,057	6,793	6,286	6,470	6,810	6,810	6,815
Ethanol for Fuel	5,605	5,378	4,857	5,033	5,375	5,375	5,375
Domestic Total	12,361	12,220	12,186	12,068	12,435	12,435	12,165
Total Exports	2,437	2,068	1,777	2,753	2,500	2,500	2,400
Use, Total	14,798	14,288	13,963	14,821	14,935	14,935	14,565
Ending Stocks	2,140	2,221	1,919	1,235	1,440	1,440	1,360
Stocks/Use Ratio	14.5%	15.5%	13.7%	8.3%	9.6%	9.6%	9.3%

World Corn Supply and Use
				Recent Report Data
				May	Apr	May	May
				USDA	USDA	USDA	USDA
(Million Metric Tons)	17-18	18-19	19-20	20-21	21-22	21-22	22-23
Supply
Beginning Stocks	351.84	341.47	322.41	307.46	292.15	293.17	309.39
Production	1,079.47	1,127.07	1,120.13	1,129.00	1,210.45	1,215.62	1,180.72
Imports	153.12	166.64	167.66	185.61	182.11	180.99	176.84
Use
Feed, Domestic	673.55	705.36	716.03	723.73	752.62	749.98	746.62
Total Domestic	1,089.83	1,145.98	1,136.17	1,143.29	1,197.15	1,199.40	1,184.97
Exports	149.78	182.62	172.25	182.97	197.00	197.79	182.70
Ending Stocks	341.47	322.56	306.37	293.17	305.46	309.39	305.13
Stocks/Use Ratio	31.3%	28.1%	27.0%	25.6%	25.5%	25.8%	25.8%

SOYBEANS

US 2022/23 soybean yield came in at 51.5 bushels/acre versus an average expectation of 51.5 and a range of expectations from 50 to 53. Production came in at 4.640 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 4.626 billion (range 4.500-4.727 billion). Ending stocks for 2022/23 came in at 310 million bushels versus an average expectation of 312 million. Ending stocks for 2021/22 came in at 235 million bushels versus an average expectation of 227 million. World 2022/23 production came in at 394.69 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 371.6 million and above the range of 350.0 to 393.6 million. Ending stocks came in at 99.60 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 97 million. 2021/22 ending stocks came in at 85.24 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 88.50 million (range 85-91 million). Brazil's 2021/22 production came in at 125 million tonnes versus 124.3 million expected (range 123-125 million) and unchanged from April. Argentina's production came in at 42.00 million tonnes versus 42.5 million expected (range 40.0-43.5 million) and down from 43.50 million in April.

PRICE OUTLOOK

Much of the USDA data came in near trade expectations, with US 2022/23 ending stocks coming in almost right at the average. This leaves the report mostly neutral. Meal usage improved in the US, and global consumption is expected to grow 3% for the 2022/23 season, which provides underlying support. A higher closed today for July Meal after reaching its lowest level since January 27 could be seen as a positive technical development given the market's extremely oversold condition. For July Soybeans, it will take a close above 1620 to penetrate the downtrend channel and turn the minor trend up. Support is at 1589.

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
				Recent Report Data
				May	Apr	May	May
				USDA	USDA	USDA	USDA
	17-18	18-19	19-20	20-21	21-22	21-22	22-23
Planted Area (M Acres)	90.2	89.2	76.1	83.4	87.2	87.2	91.0
Harvested Area (Acres)	89.5	87.6	74.9	82.6	86.3	86.3	90.1
Yield (Bu/Acre)	49.3	50.6	47.4	51.0	51.4	51.4	51.5
Supply
Beginning Stocks (M Bu)	302	438	909	525	257	257	235
Production	4,412	4,428	3,552	4,216	4,435	4,435	4,640
Imports	22	14	15	20	15	15	15
Supply,Total	4,735	4,880	4,476	4,761	4,707	4,707	4,890
Use
Crushings	2,055	2,092	2,165	2,141	2,215	2,215	2,255
Exports	2,134	1,753	1,679	2,261	2,115	2,140	2,200
Seed	104	88	97	101	106	106	102
Residual	5	39	11	1	12	12	23
Use, Total	4,297	3,971	3,952	4,504	4,447	4,472	4,580
Ending Stocks	438	909	525	257	260	235	310
Stocks/Use Ratio	10.2%	22.9%	13.3%	5.7%	5.8%	5.3%	6.8%

World Soybean Supply and Use
				Recent Report Data
				May	Apr	May	May
				USDA	USDA	USDA	USDA
(Million Metric Tons)	17-18	18-19	19-20	20-21	21-22	21-22	22-23
Supply
Beginning Stocks	94.87	100.08	115.24	94.66	103.11	99.91	85.24
Production	343.40	361.32	339.97	368.12	350.72	349.37	394.69
Imports	153.82	145.79	165.12	165.47	152.92	154.46	167.12
Use
Feed, Domestic	295.00	298.56	312.31	315.08	312.91	313.68	326.76
Total Domestic	338.78	344.16	358.32	363.84	361.88	362.93	377.44
Exports	153.24	148.94	165.17	164.51	155.29	155.57	170.01
Ending Stocks	100.08	114.09	96.84	99.91	89.58	85.24	99.60
Stocks/Use Ratio	29.5%	33.1%	27.0%	27.5%	24.8%	23.5%	26.4%

WHEAT

US 2022/23 all wheat production came in at 1.729 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 1.820 billion and a range of expectations from 1.672 to 1.915 billion. All wheat ending stocks for 2022/23 came in at 619 million bushels versus an average trade expectation of 664 million (range 495-854 million). Ending stocks for 2021/22 came in at 655 million bushels versus an average trade expectation of 685 million (range 650-738 million). This was up from 678 million in the April report. All of the US data was supportive, with tighter than expected stocks and smaller production. World 2022/23 production came in at 774.83 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 774.40 million (range 770.0-780.0 million). Ending stocks for 2022/23 came in at 267.02 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 275.0 million (range 262.0-290.0 million). Ending stocks for 2021/22 came in at 279.72 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 278.9 million (range 275.0-290.0 million).

PRICE OUTLOOK

US stocks and production numbers came in well below trade expectations. These numbers are based on the US having a "normal" yield. If yield comes in below normal, which is possible with current conditions being some of the worst on record, ending stocks could tighten considerably. July Wheat support is now at 1122 3/4, with resistance at 1159 1/2. Clearing resistance would suggest a test of the March 8 highs at 1278 1/4.

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use
				Recent Report Data
				May	Apr	May	May
				USDA	USDA	USDA	USDA
	17-18	18-19	19-20	20-21	21-22	21-22	22-23
Planted Area (M Acres)	46.1	47.8	45.5	44.5	46.7	46.7	47.4
Harvested Area (Acres)	37.6	39.6	37.4	36.8	37.2	37.2	31.7
Yield (Bu/Acre)	46.4	47.6	51.7	49.7	44.3	44.3	46.6
Supply
Beginning Stocks (M Bu)	1,181	1,099	1,080	1,028	845	845	655
Production	1,741	1,885	1,932	1,828	1,646	1,646	1,729
Imports	158	135	104	100	95	95	120
Supply,Total	3,079	3,119	3,116	2,957	2,586	2,586	2,504
Use
Food	964	954	962	961	959	962	964
Seed	63	59	62	64	64	64	66
Feed & Residual	47	88	95	95	100	100	80
Domestic, total	1,075	1,102	1,118	1,120	1,123	1,126	1,110
Total Exports	906	937	969	992	785	805	775
Use, total	1,981	2,039	2,087	2,111	1,908	1,931	1,885
Ending Stocks	1,099	1,080	1,028	845	678	655	619
Stocks/Use Ratio	55.5%	53.0%	49.3%	40.0%	35.5%	33.9%	32.8%

World Wheat Supply and Use
				Recent Report Data
				May	Apr	May	May
				USDA	USDA	USDA	USDA
(Million Metric Tons)	17-18	18-19	19-20	20-21	21-22	21-22	22-23
Supply
Beginning Stocks	265.57	284.85	281.21	297.92	290.67	291.22	279.72
Production	761.54	731.41	762.37	775.72	778.83	779.29	774.83
Imports	183.98	174.15	188.37	195.37	197.15	196.49	201.26
Use
Feed, Domestic	147.48	139.80	139.65	158.03	162.23	161.02	153.53
Total Domestic	742.26	735.18	746.75	782.42	791.08	790.79	787.52
Exports	185.43	176.20	193.87	203.34	200.10	199.89	204.89
Ending Stocks	284.85	281.09	296.83	291.22	278.42	279.72	267.02
Stocks/Use Ratio	38.4%	38.2%	39.7%	37.2%	35.2%	35.4%	33.9%