With near-term demand prospects weakened by stubbornly high inflation, cocoa prices would clearly benefit if last week's "risk on" can continue through the weekend.
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Weather delays may account for the lower than expected Center-South crush, which means that additional cane may be processed during April and boost their near-term supply.
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If ICE exchange stocks start to consistently decline while export bottlenecks appear to be easing, it would indicate that near-term demand is starting to improve
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With some decent rain in the forecast and the extreme overbought condition, the market is vulnerable to a short-term setback.
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Coffee continues to find support from production issues in Brazil and Colombia, who combined accounts for more than half of global Arabica production.
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The Petrobras gasoline price hike should give a badly-needed boost to Brazilian ethanol demand, and that can help sugar maintain upside momentum late this week.
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With Brazil and Colombia continuing to see production issues, coffee prices should remain well supported.
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An outside-day down from a 3 1/2 month high usually leads to some downside follow and after their recent rally, this could be the catalyst for profit-taking.
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The supply outlook remains supportive. Near-term pullbacks should still be seen as buying opportunities.
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Ivory Coast and Ghana production should come in significantly below last season's total, so the prospect of a near-balanced supply/demand outlook should provide underlying support to cocoa.
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With supply-side developments providing underlying support, cocoa should retain a positive tone if global markets can retain a neutral or "risk on" mood.
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With fund traders holding a hefty net long position, and outside market forces turning more negative, the market looks vulnerable to further weakness.
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If global risk sentiment continues to mend, sugar prices can regain upside momentum.
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